Following Wednesday's narrow defeat, Sporting Lisbon will be looking to restore some pride and bounce back in time for the next week's return leg. Amorim's side have been near impenetrable at home in the league, and while we expect the visitors to put up a fight, we are backing them to come away with all three points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 77.79%. A draw had a probability of 14.2% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 8.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.54%) and 1-0 (9.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.72%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (2.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
0.91) 
-0.38) 
