Following their win at Famalicao, Arouca will head into the weekend in sky-high spirits as they make a late push for a place in Europe. The Arouquenses have put together a fine run of form in recent weeks, and while Maritimo will be looking to pick up from where they dropped off last Sunday, we are backing the hosts to pick up all three points in this one.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 44.98%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 28.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9%) and 2-0 (8.23%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 0-1 (8.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Arouca in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Arouca.
-0.38) 
0.17) 
