SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 40.04%. A win for Rio Ave had a probability of 32.5% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.34%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Rio Ave win was 0-1 (10.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Rio Ave |
40.04% ( -0.19) | 27.46% ( 0.22) | 32.5% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 48.95% ( -0.68) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.4% ( -0.86) | 56.6% ( 0.86) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.43% ( -0.7) | 77.57% ( 0.7) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.34% ( -0.51) | 27.66% ( 0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.79% ( -0.66) | 63.21% ( 0.66) |
| Rio Ave Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.67% ( -0.47) | 32.33% ( 0.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.16% ( -0.53) | 68.84% ( 0.53) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Rio Ave |
| 1-0 @ 11.49% ( 0.21) 2-1 @ 8.34% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 7.39% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 3.57% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 3.16% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.07)4-1 @ 1.15% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.91% Total : 40.04% | 1-1 @ 12.97% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 8.94% ( 0.29)2-2 @ 4.71% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.83% Total : 27.45% | 0-1 @ 10.09% ( 0.2) 1-2 @ 7.33% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 5.7% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 2.76% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 2.15% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.77% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.7% Total : 32.49% |
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