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A
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 10
Nov 3, 2024 at 6pm UK
Estadio Municipal de Arouca
B

Arouca
1 - 2
Braga

Sylla (90')
Trezza (6'), Fontan (9'), Simao (24')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Bruma (16' pen.), El Ouazzani (55')
Zalazar (28'), Carvalho (70')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Estoril 4-1 Arouca
Saturday, October 26 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Braga 2-1 Guimaraes
Thursday, October 31 at 6.45pm in Taca da Liga

We said: Arouca 1-2 Braga

There have been a combined 30 goals scored in the last nine meetings between Arouca and Braga, and we anticipate another end-to-end affair at the Estadio Municipal de Arouca this weekend. While Arouca have struggled for consistency in the league this season, Braga head into the weekend on a fine run of results and we are backing them to make it four away wins on the trot against the Arouquenses. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 58.58%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 19.87%.

The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.5%) and 0-2 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.06%), while for an Arouca win it was 2-1 (5.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Braga in this match.

Result
AroucaDrawBraga
19.87% (0.736 0.74) 21.55% (0.23 0.23) 58.58% (-0.969 -0.97)
Both teams to score 56.28% (0.491 0.49)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.44% (0.042000000000002 0.04)41.55% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.04% (0.042000000000002 0.04)63.95% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)
Arouca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.36% (0.782 0.78)34.63% (-0.787 -0.79)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.64% (0.821 0.82)71.36% (-0.825 -0.83)
Braga Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.1% (-0.285 -0.28)13.89% (0.281 0.28)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.69% (-0.56 -0.56)41.31% (0.557 0.56)
Score Analysis
    Arouca 19.87%
    Braga 58.58%
    Draw 21.54%
AroucaDrawBraga
2-1 @ 5.34% (0.16 0.16)
1-0 @ 5.1% (0.098 0.1)
2-0 @ 2.7% (0.108 0.11)
3-1 @ 1.89% (0.095 0.1)
3-2 @ 1.86% (0.075 0.08)
3-0 @ 0.96% (0.058 0.06)
Other @ 2.02%
Total : 19.87%
1-1 @ 10.06% (0.082000000000001 0.08)
2-2 @ 5.27% (0.105 0.11)
0-0 @ 4.81% (-0.010000000000001 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.23% (0.037 0.04)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 21.54%
1-2 @ 9.94% (-0.011999999999999 -0.01)
0-1 @ 9.5% (-0.118 -0.12)
0-2 @ 9.37% (-0.214 -0.21)
1-3 @ 6.54% (-0.075 -0.08)
0-3 @ 6.17% (-0.206 -0.21)
2-3 @ 3.47% (0.034 0.03)
1-4 @ 3.23% (-0.071 -0.07)
0-4 @ 3.04% (-0.134 -0.13)
2-4 @ 1.71% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-5 @ 1.27% (-0.042 -0.04)
0-5 @ 1.2% (-0.066 -0.07)
Other @ 3.14%
Total : 58.58%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Estoril 4-1 Arouca
Saturday, October 26 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Maria da Fonte 0-5 Arouca
Sunday, October 20 at 3pm in Taca de Portugal
Last Game: Arouca 1-1 AVS
Saturday, October 5 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Porto 4-0 Arouca
Sunday, September 29 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Farense 0-1 Arouca
Sunday, September 22 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Arouca 0-3 Sporting Lisbon
Friday, September 13 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Braga 2-1 Guimaraes
Thursday, October 31 at 6.45pm in Taca da Liga
Last Game: Braga 2-0 Farense
Sunday, October 27 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Braga 1-2 Bodo/Glimt
Wednesday, October 23 at 3.30pm in Europa League
Last Game: 1e Dezembro 1-2 Braga
Saturday, October 19 at 5.30pm in Taca de Portugal
Last Game: Porto 2-1 Braga
Sunday, October 6 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Olympiacos 3-0 Braga
Thursday, October 3 at 5.45pm in Europa League


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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