Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 65.15%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 14.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.51%) and 2-1 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.65%), while for a Tondela win it was 0-1 (4.75%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
