SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 59.51%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 18.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.5%) and 1-2 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.5%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (5.56%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Benfica in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Benfica.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Benfica |
18.38% ( 0.1) | 22.11% ( 0.05) | 59.51% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 51.79% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.76% ( -0.07) | 46.23% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.47% ( -0.06) | 68.52% ( 0.06) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.04% ( 0.08) | 38.95% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.32% ( 0.08) | 75.68% ( -0.08) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.84% ( -0.08) | 15.15% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.25% ( -0.14) | 43.74% ( 0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Benfica |
| 1-0 @ 5.56% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 4.95% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 2.62% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 1.56% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.47% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.22% Total : 18.38% | 1-1 @ 10.5% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 5.9% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 4.67% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 0.92% ( 0)Other @ 0.11% Total : 22.11% | 0-1 @ 11.13% 0-2 @ 10.5% ( -0.03)1-2 @ 9.91% ( -0)0-3 @ 6.61% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 6.23% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 3.12% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 2.94% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.94% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.39% ( -0)0-5 @ 1.18% ( -0.01)1-5 @ 1.11% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.44% Total : 59.49% |
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