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Primeira Liga | Gameweek 33
May 15, 2021 at 6pm UK
Estádio da Luz
SL

Benfica
4 - 3
Sporting Lisbon

Seferovic (12', 49' pen.), Pizzi (29'), Verissimo (37')
Grimaldo (7'), Verissimo (38'), Otamendi (43'), Gabriel (57'), Tavares (87'), Nunez (90+2')
FT(HT: 3-1)
Goncalves (45+1', 77' pen.), Santos (62')
Reis (31'), Mendes (57'), Mario (65'), Goncalves (90+2')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 41.18%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 32.88% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.74%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 (8.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

Result
BenficaDrawSporting Lisbon
41.18%25.94%32.88%
Both teams to score 53.81%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.55%50.45%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.62%72.38%
Benfica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.77%24.24%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.42%58.59%
Sporting Lisbon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.02%28.98%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.12%64.88%
Score Analysis
    Benfica 41.18%
    Sporting Lisbon 32.88%
    Draw 25.94%
BenficaDrawSporting Lisbon
1-0 @ 9.96%
2-1 @ 8.74%
2-0 @ 7.06%
3-1 @ 4.13%
3-0 @ 3.33%
3-2 @ 2.56%
4-1 @ 1.46%
4-0 @ 1.18%
4-2 @ 0.91%
Other @ 1.86%
Total : 41.18%
1-1 @ 12.33%
0-0 @ 7.02%
2-2 @ 5.41%
3-3 @ 1.06%
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 25.94%
0-1 @ 8.7%
1-2 @ 7.64%
0-2 @ 5.39%
1-3 @ 3.15%
2-3 @ 2.23%
0-3 @ 2.22%
1-4 @ 0.98%
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 32.88%

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