SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boavista win with a probability of 40.94%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 31.5% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boavista win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.4%) and 2-0 (7.65%). The likeliest Chaves win was 0-1 (10.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Boavista would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Boavista | Draw | Chaves |
40.94% ( -0.34) | 27.56% ( 0.13) | 31.5% ( 0.2) |
| Both teams to score 48.35% ( -0.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.79% ( -0.43) | 57.21% ( 0.43) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.93% ( -0.34) | 78.07% ( 0.34) |
| Boavista Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.55% ( -0.38) | 27.45% ( 0.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 37.06% ( -0.5) | 62.94% ( 0.5) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.65% ( -0.08) | 33.35% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 30.03% ( -0.09) | 69.97% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Boavista | Draw | Chaves |
| 1-0 @ 11.83% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 8.4% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 7.65% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 3.62% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 3.3% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 1.99% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.17% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 1.07% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.91% Total : 40.93% | 1-1 @ 12.99% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 9.16% ( 0.15)2-2 @ 4.61% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.55% | 0-1 @ 10.05% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 7.14% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 5.52% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 2.61% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.02% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.69% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.47% Total : 31.49% |
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