Given the stakes of the game, we expect a thrilling contest with both sides taking the game to each other in search of all three points. While Tondela have managed just one draw from their last six home games, Arouca are unbeaten in three of their last four road games. That said, Arouca head into the game as slight favourites and we are backing them to come away with maximum points, albeit by the odd goal.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 40.17%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 33.49% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 2-0 (6.99%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (9.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.
