Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 44.07%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 28.05% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.64%) and 1-2 (8.53%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 1-0 (9.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.
0.13) 
-0.13) 
