SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 53.7%. A win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 23.18% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.8%) and 0-2 (8.88%). The likeliest Estoril Praia win was 1-0 (6.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.88%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Arouca |
23.18% ( -0.13) | 23.13% ( 0.07) | 53.7% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 55.8% ( -0.4) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.51% ( -0.45) | 44.49% ( 0.46) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.15% ( -0.44) | 66.86% ( 0.45) |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.84% ( -0.36) | 33.16% ( 0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.23% ( -0.41) | 69.77% ( 0.41) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.49% ( -0.14) | 16.51% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.75% ( -0.26) | 46.26% ( 0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 6.04% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 6.01% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 3.34% 3-1 @ 2.21% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 1.99% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 1.23% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.36% Total : 23.18% | 1-1 @ 10.88% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 5.48% ( 0.11)2-2 @ 5.41% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 1.2% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.16% Total : 23.12% | 0-1 @ 9.86% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 9.8% ( 0)0-2 @ 8.88% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 5.89% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 5.33% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 3.25% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 2.65% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 2.4% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.46% ( -0.03)1-5 @ 0.95% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.22% Total : 53.7% |
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