Buoyed by their victory over Estoril Praia, Famalicao will head into the weekend with renewed confidence as they look to steer clear of the relegation zone. However, Chaves have been a tough nut to crack at home in the league, where they are unbeaten in their last five matches. Both sides are evenly-matched on paper and we anticipate that the spoils will be shared in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 38.99%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 32.09% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.84%) and 0-2 (7.55%). The likeliest Chaves win was 1-0 (11.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.
0.45) 
-0.59) 
