SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 45.81%. A draw had a probability of 28.4% and a win for Famalicao had a probability of 25.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.37%) and 2-1 (8.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.96%), while for a Famalicao win it was 0-1 (9.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Famalicao |
45.81% ( 1.17) | 28.39% ( 0.18) | 25.79% ( -1.35) |
| Both teams to score 43.09% ( -1.36) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.63% ( -1.26) | 62.37% ( 1.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.99% ( -0.93) | 82.01% ( 0.93) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.7% ( 0.01) | 27.3% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.26% ( 0.02) | 62.74% ( -0.01) |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.26% ( -1.88) | 40.74% ( 1.88) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.68% ( -1.73) | 77.32% ( 1.73) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Famalicao |
| 1-0 @ 14.43% ( 0.66) 2-0 @ 9.37% ( 0.43)2-1 @ 8.42% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 4.06% ( 0.19)3-1 @ 3.64% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.64% ( -0.09)4-0 @ 1.32% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 1.18% ( -0)Other @ 1.75% Total : 45.8% | 1-1 @ 12.96% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 11.12% ( 0.51)2-2 @ 3.78% ( -0.21)Other @ 0.53% Total : 28.39% | 0-1 @ 9.99% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 5.82% ( -0.33)0-2 @ 4.48% ( -0.26)1-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.2)0-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.15)2-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.13)Other @ 1.29% Total : 25.79% |
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