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Champions League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Feb 22, 2023 at 8pm UK
San Siro
P

Inter Milan
1 - 0
Porto

Lukaku (86')
Dimarco (41')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Otavio (41'), Pepe (63'), Conceicao (90')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Porto 1-0 Rio Ave
Saturday, February 18 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Milan win with a probability of 41.23%. A win for Porto had a probability of 31.38% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.47%) and 2-0 (7.66%). The likeliest Porto win was 0-1 (9.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Inter Milan in this match.

Result
Inter MilanDrawPorto
41.23% (0.464 0.46) 27.39% (0.0010000000000012 0) 31.38% (-0.466 -0.47)
Both teams to score 48.82% (-0.162 -0.16)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.4% (-0.132 -0.13)56.6% (0.131 0.13)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.42% (-0.106 -0.11)77.58% (0.104 0.1)
Inter Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.99% (0.193 0.19)27.01% (-0.192 -0.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.63% (0.248 0.25)62.37% (-0.249 -0.25)
Porto Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.88% (-0.401 -0.4)33.11% (0.4 0.4)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.28% (-0.444 -0.44)69.71% (0.443 0.44)
Score Analysis
    Inter Milan 41.22%
    Porto 31.38%
    Draw 27.38%
Inter MilanDrawPorto
1-0 @ 11.7% (0.12 0.12)
2-1 @ 8.47% (0.042 0.04)
2-0 @ 7.66% (0.121 0.12)
3-1 @ 3.7% (0.038 0.04)
3-0 @ 3.34% (0.07 0.07)
3-2 @ 2.04% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-1 @ 1.21% (0.019 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.09% (0.029 0.03)
Other @ 2%
Total : 41.22%
1-1 @ 12.93% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 8.94% (0.045000000000002 0.05)
2-2 @ 4.68% (-0.028 -0.03)
Other @ 0.82%
Total : 27.38%
0-1 @ 9.89% (-0.058 -0.06)
1-2 @ 7.15% (-0.082 -0.08)
0-2 @ 5.46% (-0.093 -0.09)
1-3 @ 2.63% (-0.059 -0.06)
0-3 @ 2.01% (-0.057 -0.06)
2-3 @ 1.72% (-0.029 -0.03)
Other @ 2.52%
Total : 31.38%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Inter Milan 3-1 Udinese
Saturday, February 18 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: Sampdoria 0-0 Inter Milan
Monday, February 13 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: Inter Milan 1-0 AC Milan
Sunday, February 5 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: Inter Milan 1-0 Atalanta
Tuesday, January 31 at 8pm in Coppa Italia
Last Game: Cremonese 1-2 Inter Milan
Saturday, January 28 at 5pm in Serie A
Last Game: Inter Milan 0-1 Empoli
Monday, January 23 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: Porto 1-0 Rio Ave
Saturday, February 18 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 1-2 Porto
Sunday, February 12 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Viseu 0-1 Porto
Wednesday, February 8 at 8.45pm in Taca de Portugal
Last Game: Porto 2-0 Vizela
Sunday, February 5 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Maritimo 0-2 Porto
Wednesday, February 1 at 7pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 0-2 Porto
Saturday, January 28 at 7.45pm in Taca da Liga


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