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Primeira Liga | Gameweek 18
Jan 19, 2025 at 6pm UK
Estadio Jose Gomes
B

Estrela Amadora
0 - 1
Braga


Bucca (84'), Varela (87'), Manu (90+2')
FT(HT: 0-0)
El Ouazzani (90+3')
Martinez (79')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Estrela Amadora 2-4 Estoril
Sunday, January 5 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Braga 2-1 Lusitano Evora
Wednesday, January 15 at 8.15pm in Taca de Portugal

We said: Estrela Amadora 1-3 Braga

Braga head into this encounter on the back of four consecutive away victories in the top flight, leaving them with the second-best away record in the division. While Estrela have been solid at home, their recent loss to Estoril has exposed vulnerabilities, leaving them susceptible to the visitors, making a win for the Archbishops the most likely outcome. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 51.16%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 24.62% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.64%) and 0-2 (8.86%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 (6.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.48%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Braga in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Braga.

Result
Estrela AmadoraDrawBraga
24.62% (0.167 0.17) 24.22% (0.024000000000001 0.02) 51.16% (-0.193 -0.19)
Both teams to score 53.9% (0.095999999999997 0.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.21% (0.044000000000004 0.04)47.78% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.03% (0.039999999999999 0.04)69.97% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)
Estrela Amadora Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.29% (0.167 0.17)33.71% (-0.168 -0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.63% (0.181 0.18)70.37% (-0.182 -0.18)
Braga Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.32% (-0.059000000000012 -0.06)18.68% (0.058 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.98% (-0.1 -0.1)50.02% (0.098999999999997 0.1)
Score Analysis
    Estrela Amadora 24.62%
    Braga 51.16%
    Draw 24.21%
Estrela AmadoraDrawBraga
1-0 @ 6.85% (0.019 0.02)
2-1 @ 6.25% (0.034000000000001 0.03)
2-0 @ 3.72% (0.027 0.03)
3-1 @ 2.26% (0.023 0.02)
3-2 @ 1.9% (0.015 0.02)
3-0 @ 1.35% (0.016 0.02)
Other @ 2.29%
Total : 24.62%
1-1 @ 11.48% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 6.3% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.24% (0.019 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.06% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 24.21%
0-1 @ 10.56% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
1-2 @ 9.64% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
0-2 @ 8.86% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
1-3 @ 5.39% (-0.016 -0.02)
0-3 @ 4.96% (-0.037 -0.04)
2-3 @ 2.93% (0.0050000000000003 0.01)
1-4 @ 2.26% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-4 @ 2.08% (-0.019 -0.02)
2-4 @ 1.23%
Other @ 3.25%
Total : 51.16%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Estrela Amadora 2-4 Estoril
Sunday, January 5 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: AVS 1-1 Estrela Amadora
Saturday, December 28 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Estrela Amadora 1-0 Rio Ave
Monday, December 23 at 8.45pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Porto 2-0 Estrela Amadora
Monday, December 16 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Estrela Amadora 2-1 Arouca
Monday, December 9 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Farense 1-0 Estrela Amadora
Friday, November 29 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Braga 2-1 Lusitano Evora
Wednesday, January 15 at 8.15pm in Taca de Portugal
Last Game: Benfica 3-0 Braga
Wednesday, January 8 at 7.45pm in Taca da Liga
Last Game: Benfica 1-2 Braga
Saturday, January 4 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Braga 1-2 Casa Pia
Sunday, December 29 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Santa Clara 0-2 Braga
Sunday, December 22 at 5pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Braga 3-3 Famalicao
Monday, December 16 at 6.45pm in Primeira Liga


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