SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 39.69%. A win for Boavista had a probability of 34.92% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.63%) and 2-0 (6.47%). The likeliest Boavista win was 0-1 (8.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Boavista |
39.69% ( 0.32) | 25.39% ( 0.06) | 34.92% ( -0.38) |
| Both teams to score 56.17% ( -0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.38% ( -0.34) | 47.62% ( 0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.18% ( -0.31) | 69.82% ( 0.32) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.27% ( 0.01) | 23.73% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.14% ( 0.02) | 57.86% ( -0.02) |
| Boavista Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.64% ( -0.38) | 26.36% ( 0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.5% ( -0.51) | 61.5% ( 0.52) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Boavista |
| 1-0 @ 9% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 8.63% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 6.47% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 4.14% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 3.1% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 2.76% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.49% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.12% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 0.99% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.01% Total : 39.69% | 1-1 @ 11.99% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 6.25% ( 0.09)2-2 @ 5.75% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.23% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.38% | 0-1 @ 8.34% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 8% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 5.56% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 3.56% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 2.56% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 2.47% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 1.19% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.25% Total : 34.92% |
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