SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 51.61%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 24.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.65%) and 2-0 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.52%), while for a Chaves win it was 0-1 (6.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Moreirense in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Moreirense.
| Result | ||
| Moreirense | Draw | Chaves |
51.61% ( -0.17) | 24.26% ( 0.08) | 24.13% ( 0.09) |
| Both teams to score 53.24% ( -0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.58% ( -0.23) | 48.42% ( 0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.45% ( -0.22) | 70.55% ( 0.22) |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.25% ( -0.15) | 18.75% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.86% ( -0.26) | 50.14% ( 0.26) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.52% ( -0.05) | 34.48% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.81% ( -0.05) | 71.19% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Moreirense | Draw | Chaves |
| 1-0 @ 10.82% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.65% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 9.06% ( -0)3-1 @ 5.38% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 5.05% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.87% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 2.25% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 2.12% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.2% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.22% Total : 51.61% | 1-1 @ 11.52% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 6.47% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 5.14% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.26% | 0-1 @ 6.88% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 6.14% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 3.67% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 2.18% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.14% Total : 24.13% |
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