SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 66.63%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 13.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.4%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.55%), while for a Moreirense win it was 0-1 (4.72%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Moreirense |
66.63% ( 0.31) | 20.1% ( -0.21) | 13.26% ( -0.11) |
| Both teams to score 46.56% ( 0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.83% ( 0.61) | 47.16% ( -0.62) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.6% ( 0.57) | 69.4% ( -0.58) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.74% ( 0.28) | 13.25% ( -0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.97% ( 0.57) | 40.03% ( -0.58) |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.67% ( 0.2) | 46.32% ( -0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.03% ( 0.16) | 81.97% ( -0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Porto | Draw | Moreirense |
| 2-0 @ 12.53% ( -0.06) 1-0 @ 12.4% ( -0.19)2-1 @ 9.65% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 8.45% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 6.5% ( 0.08)4-0 @ 4.27% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 3.29% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 2.5% ( 0.04)5-0 @ 1.73% ( 0.05)5-1 @ 1.33% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.26% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.72% Total : 66.62% | 1-1 @ 9.55% ( -0.09) 0-0 @ 6.14% ( -0.16)2-2 @ 3.71% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.71% Total : 20.1% | 0-1 @ 4.72% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 3.67% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 1.82% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 0.94% ( 0)Other @ 1.16% Total : 13.26% |
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