SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 52.11%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 24.27% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.72%) and 0-2 (8.71%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 1-0 (6.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Santa Clara | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
24.27% ( 0.04) | 23.61% ( 0.12) | 52.11% ( -0.15) |
| Both teams to score 55.51% ( -0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.51% ( -0.47) | 45.48% ( 0.48) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.18% ( -0.45) | 67.81% ( 0.45) |
| Santa Clara Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.24% ( -0.23) | 32.75% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.68% ( -0.25) | 69.31% ( 0.26) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.55% ( -0.23) | 17.45% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.08% ( -0.4) | 47.91% ( 0.41) |
| Score Analysis |
| Santa Clara | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 1-0 @ 6.38% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 6.22% ( 0)2-0 @ 3.56% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 2.31% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 1.32% ( 0)Other @ 2.47% Total : 24.27% | 1-1 @ 11.13% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 5.72% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 5.43% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.16% Total : 23.6% | 0-1 @ 9.98% ( 0.13) 1-2 @ 9.72% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 8.71% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 5.66% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 5.07% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.16% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 2.47% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 2.21% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.38% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.76% Total : 52.12% |
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