SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Vitoria de Guimaraes | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Vizela | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Santa Clara | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Sporting Lisbon | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Porto | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 5 | Estoril Praia | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 65.15%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Vizela had a probability of 14.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.18%) and 1-2 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.58%), while for a Vizela win it was 1-0 (4.66%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vizela | Draw | Porto |
14.69% ( -0.18) | 20.16% ( -0.11) | 65.15% ( 0.29) |
| Both teams to score 50.16% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.65% ( 0.12) | 44.35% ( -0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.28% ( 0.12) | 66.72% ( -0.11) |
| Vizela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.54% ( -0.18) | 42.46% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.17% ( -0.15) | 78.83% ( 0.15) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.18% ( 0.12) | 12.82% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.84% ( 0.25) | 39.15% ( -0.25) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vizela | Draw | Porto |
| 1-0 @ 4.66% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 4.1% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 2% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 1.2% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 1.17% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.56% Total : 14.69% | 1-1 @ 9.58% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 5.44% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 4.21% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.92% Total : 20.16% | 0-2 @ 11.48% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 11.18% 1-2 @ 9.84% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 7.86% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 6.74% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 4.04% ( 0.05)1-4 @ 3.46% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 2.89% ( -0)0-5 @ 1.66% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 1.48% ( 0)1-5 @ 1.42% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.1% Total : 65.14% |
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