SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al Gharafa win with a probability of 53.72%. A win for Umm Salal had a probability of 24.57% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al Gharafa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.51%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Umm Salal win was 1-2 (6.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Al Gharafa would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Al Gharafa | Draw | Umm Salal |
53.72% ( 0.15) | 21.7% ( -0.03) | 24.57% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 62.51% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.6% ( 0.02) | 36.39% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.47% ( 0.03) | 58.53% ( -0.03) |
| Al Gharafa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.33% ( 0.06) | 13.67% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.12% ( 0.11) | 40.87% ( -0.11) |
| Umm Salal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.41% ( -0.08) | 27.59% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.88% ( -0.1) | 63.12% ( 0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Al Gharafa | Draw | Umm Salal |
| 2-1 @ 9.62% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.51% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 7.47% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 6.38% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 4.95% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 4.11% ( 0)4-1 @ 3.17% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.46% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 2.04% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.26% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 0.98% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.77% Total : 53.72% | 1-1 @ 9.67% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.19% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.77% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.76% ( -0)Other @ 0.31% Total : 21.7% | 1-2 @ 6.22% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 4.86% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 3.13% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.66% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.69% Total : 24.57% |
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