SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 48.84%. A win for Sochi had a probability of 26.86% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 2-0 (8.15%). The likeliest Sochi win was 0-1 (6.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lokomotiv Moscow would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lokomotiv Moscow | Draw | Sochi |
48.84% ( 0.43) | 24.3% ( -0.23) | 26.86% ( -0.2) |
| Both teams to score 55.75% ( 0.58) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.66% ( 0.84) | 46.34% ( -0.85) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.37% ( 0.79) | 68.63% ( -0.79) |
| Lokomotiv Moscow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.96% ( 0.51) | 19.04% ( -0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.38% ( 0.84) | 50.62% ( -0.84) |
| Sochi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.87% ( 0.29) | 31.13% ( -0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.54% ( 0.34) | 67.46% ( -0.34) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lokomotiv Moscow | Draw | Sochi |
| 1-0 @ 9.83% ( -0.19) 2-1 @ 9.51% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 8.15% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 5.26% ( 0.11)3-0 @ 4.51% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 3.07% ( 0.09)4-1 @ 2.18% ( 0.08)4-0 @ 1.87% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.27% ( 0.06)Other @ 3.18% Total : 48.84% | 1-1 @ 11.47% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 5.93% ( -0.21)2-2 @ 5.55% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 1.19% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.3% | 0-1 @ 6.92% ( -0.19) 1-2 @ 6.7% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 4.04% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 2.6% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.16% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.87% Total : 26.86% |
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