Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ural Yekaterinburg win with a probability of 46.78%. A win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 26.99% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ural Yekaterinburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.11%) and 2-0 (8.72%). The likeliest Akhmat Grozny win was 0-1 (8.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood.
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