Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alcorcon win with a probability of 36.87%. A win for Espanyol had a probability of 32.58% and a draw had a probability of 30.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alcorcon win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.33%) and 2-1 (7.13%). The likeliest Espanyol win was 0-1 (12.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.
0.22) 
-0.38) 
