Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almeria win with a probability of 43.12%. A win for Cartagena had a probability of 28.65% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almeria win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.49%) and 1-2 (8.37%). The likeliest Cartagena win was 1-0 (10.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Almeria would win this match.