Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Las Palmas win with a probability of 58.56%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Burgos had a probability of 15.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Las Palmas win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.18%) and 2-1 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.25%), while for a Burgos win it was 0-1 (7.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.
0.05) 
-0.02) 
