Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Gijon win with a probability of 44.43%. A draw had a probability of 30.6% and a win for Leganes had a probability of 24.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Gijon win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.57%) and 2-1 (7.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.25%), while for a Leganes win it was 0-1 (11.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
0.02) 
-0.01) 
