Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malaga win with a probability of 37.49%. A win for Castellon had a probability of 32.18% and a draw had a probability of 30.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malaga win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.45%) and 2-1 (7.26%). The likeliest Castellon win was 0-1 (12.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Malaga would win this match.