Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mirandes win with a probability of 41.35%. A win for Leganes had a probability of 30.21% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mirandes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (8.05%). The likeliest Leganes win was 0-1 (10.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.
0.87) 
-0.33) 
