Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Racing de Santander win with a probability of 37.2%. A win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 34.84% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Racing de Santander win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.9%) and 2-0 (6.85%). The likeliest Real Valladolid win was 0-1 (10.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.
0.17) 
-0.15) 
