Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 49.58%. A draw had a probability of 29.5% and a win for Alcorcon had a probability of 20.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.09%) and 2-1 (7.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.97%), while for an Alcorcon win it was 0-1 (9.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rayo Vallecano would win this match.