Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Valladolid win with a probability of 43.04%. A win for Alcorcon had a probability of 30.43% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Valladolid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.81%) and 0-2 (7.79%). The likeliest Alcorcon win was 1-0 (9.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Valladolid would win this match.
