Atalanta have drawn only one of their last 16 Serie A home matches, but they may have to settle for a point this weekend. Under Raffaele Palladino, Monza are capable of springing the odd surprise, and the Biancorossi can avoid being beaten by their Lombardy rivals for the first time since winning promotion last year.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 67.15%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Monza had a probability of 13.98%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.9%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.88%), while for a Monza win it was 0-1 (4.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.
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