While no team has conceded more first-half goals than Sampdoria in Serie A this season (nine), Bologna have leaked the same number in the second - so both sides have the opportunity to boost a meagre tally this weekend.
Neither is fully familiar with their new coach's demands, so a disjointed affair could be decided by one moment of magic or a minor disaster.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bologna win with a probability of 52.02%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Sampdoria had a probability of 23.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.58%) and 2-0 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.74%), while for a Sampdoria win it was 0-1 (7.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.
0.18) 
-0.23) 
