SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 75.27%. A draw had a probability of 15.3% and a win for Bologna had a probability of 9.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.73%) and 2-1 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.16%), while for a Bologna win it was 1-2 (2.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Napoli | Draw | Bologna |
75.27% ( 0.04) | 15.25% ( -0.01) | 9.48% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 50.57% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.91% ( -0.06) | 35.09% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.91% ( -0.06) | 57.09% ( 0.06) |
| Napoli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.17% ( -0.01) | 7.83% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 72.22% ( -0.01) | 27.78% ( 0.01) |
| Bologna Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.87% ( -0.1) | 45.13% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.96% ( -0.08) | 81.04% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Napoli | Draw | Bologna |
| 2-0 @ 11.46% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 9.73% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 9.12% ( -0)1-0 @ 9% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 7.74% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 6.2% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 4.93% ( -0)5-0 @ 3.16% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.08% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 2.51% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.96% ( -0.01)6-0 @ 1.34% ( 0)6-1 @ 1.07% ( -0)5-2 @ 1% ( -0)Other @ 2.96% Total : 75.26% | 1-1 @ 7.16% ( -0) 2-2 @ 3.63% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.53% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.93% Total : 15.25% | 1-2 @ 2.85% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 2.81% ( 0)0-2 @ 1.12% ( -0)2-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.74% Total : 9.48% |
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