We said: Sampdoria 1-2 Fiorentina
Yet to draw a league game at home in 2022, Sampdoria would probably take a point if offered, given the quality of Monday's opposition.
However, their relative lack of firepower could cost them, and Fiorentina are set for a rare away win - keeping them in the top-six mix for the final weekend.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 41.14%. A win for Sampdoria had a probability of 33.84% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.81%) and 0-2 (6.6%). The likeliest Sampdoria win was 1-0 (7.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.