Yet to draw a league game at home in 2022, Sampdoria would probably take a point if offered, given the quality of Monday's opposition.
However, their relative lack of firepower could cost them, and Fiorentina are set for a rare away win - keeping them in the top-six mix for the final weekend.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 41.14%. A win for Sampdoria had a probability of 33.84% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.81%) and 0-2 (6.6%). The likeliest Sampdoria win was 1-0 (7.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.
-0.15) 
0.27) 
