Neither side is prolific, but Lecce are far harder to beat at Via del Mare, where they have picked up the bulk of their points this season. Verona can barely buy a goal on the road, and they may suffer an 11th away loss of the season.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lecce win with a probability of 45.65%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Hellas Verona had a probability of 27.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lecce win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.89%) and 2-1 (8.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.8%), while for a Hellas Verona win it was 0-1 (9.34%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.
0.24) 
-0.04) 
