SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 39.09%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 38.25% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.73%) and 0-2 (4.89%). The likeliest Napoli win was 2-1 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.66%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Napoli | Draw | Ajax |
38.25% ( -0.16) | 22.66% ( 0.01) | 39.09% ( 0.15) |
| Both teams to score 66.73% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.94% ( -0.08) | 34.06% ( 0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.07% ( -0.09) | 55.93% ( 0.09) |
| Napoli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.51% ( -0.11) | 18.49% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.29% ( -0.18) | 49.71% ( 0.18) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.88% ( 0.03) | 18.13% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.92% ( 0.05) | 49.08% ( -0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Napoli | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 8.15% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 5.66% ( 0)2-0 @ 4.77% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 4.59% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3.92% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.69% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.94% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.65% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.13% ( -0.01)4-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.81% Total : 38.25% | 1-1 @ 9.66% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.96% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.35% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 2.23% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.45% Total : 22.66% | 1-2 @ 8.25% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 5.73% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 4.89% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 4.7% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 3.96% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.78% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 2.01% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.69% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.19% ( 0.01)3-4 @ 0.95% ( -0)Other @ 2.94% Total : 39.09% |
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