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Serie A | Gameweek 4
Oct 18, 2020 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Olimpico
BL

Roma
5 - 2
Benevento

Pedro (31'), Dzeko (35', 77'), Veretout (69' pen.), Perez (89')
Ibanez (33'), Veretout (53'), Santon (65')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Caprari (5'), Lapadula (55')
Caprari (32'), Foulon (82')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 48.32%. A win for Benevento had a probability of 28.54% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.95%) and 2-0 (7.1%). The likeliest Benevento win was 1-2 (6.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.53%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.

Result
RomaDrawBenevento
48.32%23.13%28.54%
Both teams to score 61.15%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.17%39.83%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.81%62.19%
Roma Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.26%16.74%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.33%46.66%
Benevento Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.45%26.55%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.24%61.76%
Score Analysis
    Roma 48.33%
    Benevento 28.54%
    Draw 23.13%
RomaDrawBenevento
2-1 @ 9.42%
1-0 @ 7.95%
2-0 @ 7.1%
3-1 @ 5.61%
3-0 @ 4.23%
3-2 @ 3.72%
4-1 @ 2.51%
4-0 @ 1.89%
4-2 @ 1.66%
Other @ 4.25%
Total : 48.33%
1-1 @ 10.53%
2-2 @ 6.24%
0-0 @ 4.45%
3-3 @ 1.64%
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 23.13%
1-2 @ 6.99%
0-1 @ 5.9%
0-2 @ 3.91%
1-3 @ 3.09%
2-3 @ 2.76%
0-3 @ 1.73%
1-4 @ 1.02%
2-4 @ 0.92%
Other @ 2.24%
Total : 28.54%


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