Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 40.77%. A win for Genoa had a probability of 33.19% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest Genoa win was 0-1 (8.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.
