Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 45.43%. A win for Genoa had a probability of 29.01% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (7.95%). The likeliest Genoa win was 0-1 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
