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Serie A | Gameweek 38
May 23, 2021 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Alberto Picco, La Spezia, Italy
RL

Spezia
2 - 2
Roma

Verde (6'), Pobega (38')
FT(HT: 2-0)
El Shaarawy (52'), Mkhitaryan (85')
Kumbulla (90+4')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 41.94%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 34.88% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.67%) and 0-2 (5.68%). The likeliest Spezia win was 2-1 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.

Result
SpeziaDrawRoma
34.88%23.18%41.94%
Both teams to score 64.22%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.86%37.14%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.66%59.34%
Spezia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.51%21.5%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.46%54.54%
Roma Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.8%18.21%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.79%49.22%
Score Analysis
    Spezia 34.88%
    Roma 41.94%
    Draw 23.17%
SpeziaDrawRoma
2-1 @ 7.88%
1-0 @ 6.02%
2-0 @ 4.62%
3-1 @ 4.04%
3-2 @ 3.44%
3-0 @ 2.37%
4-1 @ 1.55%
4-2 @ 1.32%
4-0 @ 0.91%
Other @ 2.74%
Total : 34.88%
1-1 @ 10.24%
2-2 @ 6.71%
0-0 @ 3.91%
3-3 @ 1.95%
Other @ 0.36%
Total : 23.17%
1-2 @ 8.73%
0-1 @ 6.67%
0-2 @ 5.68%
1-3 @ 4.96%
2-3 @ 3.81%
0-3 @ 3.22%
1-4 @ 2.11%
2-4 @ 1.62%
0-4 @ 1.37%
Other @ 3.77%
Total : 41.94%

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