Verona have conceded an average of two goals per game on home turf, and their confidence must be low after losing to Lecce in such dismal fashion.
As a result, Roma can record their first win on the road, easing the pressure on Ivan Juric, who could beat two former clubs back-to-back.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 42.31%. A win for Hellas Verona had a probability of 30.92% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.7%) and 0-2 (7.7%). The likeliest Hellas Verona win was 1-0 (9.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.
0.72) 
-0.09) 
