Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Frosinone win with a probability of 59.08%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Modena had a probability of 17.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Frosinone win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.56%) and 2-1 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.02%), while for a Modena win it was 0-1 (6.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Frosinone would win this match.
-0.03) 
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