SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SPAL win with a probability of 47.31%. A win for Modena had a probability of 27.54% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a SPAL win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (8.26%). The likeliest Modena win was 0-1 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| SPAL | Draw | Modena |
47.31% ( -0.55) | 25.15% ( 0.19) | 27.54% ( 0.36) |
| Both teams to score 53.55% ( -0.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.5% ( -0.56) | 49.5% ( 0.57) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.47% ( -0.5) | 71.53% ( 0.51) |
| SPAL Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.06% ( -0.46) | 20.95% ( 0.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.31% ( -0.73) | 53.69% ( 0.74) |
| Modena Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.74% ( -0.01) | 32.27% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.24% ( -0.02) | 68.77% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| SPAL | Draw | Modena |
| 1-0 @ 10.56% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 9.34% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 8.26% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 4.87% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 4.3% ( -0.09)3-2 @ 2.75% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 1.9% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 1.68% ( -0.06)4-2 @ 1.08% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.57% Total : 47.31% | 1-1 @ 11.95% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 6.76% ( 0.15)2-2 @ 5.28% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.15% | 0-1 @ 7.65% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 6.76% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 4.32% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 2.55% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.64% Total : 27.54% |
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