Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SPAL win with a probability of 47.31%. A win for Modena had a probability of 27.54% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a SPAL win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (8.26%). The likeliest Modena win was 0-1 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.
-0.55) 
0.19) 
