Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Frosinone win with a probability of 57.69%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Cagliari had a probability of 18.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Frosinone win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.47%) and 2-1 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.3%), while for a Cagliari win it was 0-1 (6.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
0.07) 
-0.03) 
