Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Modena win with a probability of 37.57%. A win for Benevento had a probability of 36.28% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Modena win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.29%) and 2-0 (6.35%). The likeliest Benevento win was 0-1 (9.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.
0.01) 
-0.17) 
