Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 54.71%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Modena had a probability of 21.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.1%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.43%), while for a Modena win it was 0-1 (6.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.
0.04) 
-0.01) 
