Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 42.82%. A win for Modena had a probability of 30.2% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.7%) and 2-0 (7.93%). The likeliest Modena win was 0-1 (9.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Genoa in this match.
-0.58) 
0.84) 
