Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 38.4%. A win for Parma had a probability of 32.04% and a draw had a probability of 29.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.59%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Parma win was 0-1 (11.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.42%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.
0.48) 
-0.71) 
